- 1 Effects of intraoperative magnesium sulfate administration on postoperative tramadol requirement in liver transplant patients
- 2 Game Length & Maximizing Time Value
- 3 Thinking Like A Data Scientist Part III: The Role of Scores
- 4 India v Pakistan Live Score: Live Cricket Score of India v Pakistan, Match 4, Birmingham
Effects of intraoperative magnesium sulfate administration on postoperative tramadol requirement in liver transplant patients
© Gucyetmez et al.; 2015
Magnesium is an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor blocker and it's known to have analgesic effect([ 1 , 2 ]). Hypomagnesaemia is often seen in major surgery and it is associated with higher morbidity, mortality, organ dysfunction, systemic inflammatory response syndrome and pulmonary hypertension([ 2 , 4 ]). It's shown that intra-operative use of magnesium sulfate reduced per-operative analgesic requirement([ 5 ]).
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of intraoperative magnesium sulfate administration on postoperative tramadol requirement in liver transplant patients.
Upon the approval of local ethical committee, liver transplant patients >18 years were screened prospectively between October 2014 and April 2015. All patients were received standart anesthesia induction (1,5 mcg/kg fentanyl, 2 mgr/kg propofol and 0,6 mg/kg esmeron) and maintenance (MAC>0.7 sevorane, 0,05-0,25 mcg/kg/min remifentanil and 0,15 mg/kg esmeron per hour). Of the screened ones; 35 randomly selected patients with normal blood magnesium level (1.8-3.6 mg/dL) were included to control group and another 35 randomly selected patients with low blood magnesium level
(< 1.8 mg/dL) were included to magnesium group and given 50 mg/kg intravenous magnesium sulfate replacement by the anaesthetist team. Intravenous tramadol (0,15 mgr/kg/h infusion and 0,2 mg/kg bolus if visuel pain scores >5) was used for postoperative analgesia for all patients. Patient's demographic datas, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, lenght of time for surgery, intra-operative magnesiun levels, APACHE II and SOFA Scores, 24-hours tramadol requirement, time of the first additional tramadol administration, mechanical ventilation (MV) duration, length of ICU and hospital stay were recorded by the intensivists.
Magnesium and control groups were similar in terms of demographics, MELD score, length of time for surgery, APACHE II score and length of ICU stay (p>0.05 for each). Median intraoperative magnesium level (1.7 mg/dL vs. 2.2 mg/dL), 24-hours tramadol requirement (3.73 mg/kg/day vs. 4.13 mg/kg/day) and MV duration (6.0 hours vs. 8.0 hours) of magnesium group were significantly lower than control group whereas median time of the first additional tramadol use (18.0 hours vs. 5.0 hours) was significantly higher (p < 0.001 for all).
Intraoperative use of magnesium sulfate in the liver transplanlation patients reduces postoperative tramadol requirement and thus it is a candidate to be adjuvant agent with its advantages. Besides, it may reduce MV duration by contributing to effective analgesia without causing respiratory depression.
Game Length & Maximizing Time Value
This month we have been exploring Dimensions of Gaming, which are criteria such as player count and game complexity frequently used before a purchase to determine if a game is right for you. This week we are looking at game length , the time commitment needed in order to reach completion.
Games are frequently categorized by their length. Short games are sometimes considered fillers and sandwiched between two longer and more immersive games. Every game carries with it an expectation as game designers have a responsibility to maximize the experience of their players. This includes prioritizing an investment with true value: a player’s time.
Game design should focus less on the duration of a game and more on how much a person gains from playing it, better described as time value . All things considered, if a game can deliver the same experience in a shorter amount of time it will be played more often, receive more attention and garner greater commercial success.
The length of a game is frequently a deciding factor for consumers in determining whether a new game is something for them. Games with a shorter listed playing time may have fewer components and expectations of a lower price point. Games that require several hours to play will eliminate a group of gamers strained for time. The midpoint which divides these segments seems to be right around 90 minutes. There are a multitude of reasons which contribute to this threshold, but lets look at three reasons why the current market may favor shorter games:
Time Constraints: People are always becoming more and more restrained for time. Technology has increased our expectation for immediate gratification when we use free time. In recent years board games have had a resurgence, but the expectation remains in which people want more value for their time. A 3 hour activity may or may not be a significant investment for someone but a 30 minute game will always appear to carry less risk of dissatisfaction.
Attention Spans: Many studies have evaluated the attention span of humans to find the optimal duration for activities. The range most often cited is about 40 to 50 minutes for sustained attention: the amount of time a person can spend continuously on a task before becoming more susceptible to distractions. This range will increase if the participants are active (such as playing board games) or intrinsically motivated by the activity (players who find board games enjoyable). The longer a game lasts the more difficult it will be for the game to maintain the focus level of a group.
Alternatives Options: Hundreds of new titles are being published every year that cater to a myriad of preferences. Gathering a group of friends for a board game night will bring together a diverse set of interests. Few games will elicit unanimous enthusiasm and gaming groups may be better served by compromising and playing three or four games rather than a single game for 4-hours.
While short games have grown in popularity, they also carry design drawbacks as we will discuss later in this article. The role of game design is to maximize the experience of players by using their time efficiently. To do this we must first identify our target audience.
There are many demands placed on game designers in the midst of a creative endeavor. Finding your audience and remaining cognizant of their needs is an important idea, as the competitive realm of board games is only raising the bar each year. The most important concept here is to keep in mind who your game is intended for:
- A family Eurogame probably needs to remain in the range of around 60 minutes or less. These games need the ability to fit into a busy schedule and have a predictable playing time.
- A children’s game should have a length relative to the intended age group. Attention span increases with age so an opportunity exists to have a very short basic game and slightly longer advanced game.
- A heavier title catered to “Alphagamers” may want to aim for enough substance and complexity to warrant several hours. These games carry the highest expectations and players want strategic depth in every decision.
This is a very simple introduction and these are just a few potential target segments but it can get you started. Identifying your target audience is a cornerstone of professional marketing: if you attempt to effectively target everyone with your product you will effectively get no one. Publishers must consider market viability and how well a game fits a target market segment.
- Life is less likely to get in the way: It is easier to find time for a game that lasts 30 minutes rather than one that is 90 minutes. More players will have the opportunity to play your game as exposure to a wider audience is greater when you can pitch “It only takes 15 minutes”. The network effects of acquiring new players are favorable to short playing times.
- A fresh start: The learning curve of a game can leave players with the feeling of “I’ve learned so much I wish I could restart”. Quicker games allow a greater flexibility for an encore and give those players a chance at redemption.
- Risk of Repetition: Game length is an indicator of irreducible complexity. It demonstrates that a game design has eliminated unnecessary elements and has a target playing time for the desired experience. When shorter games provide fewer key decisions they also offer fewer potential gameplay permutations. A 30 minute game runs a much greater risk of burning out a regular group of players than a 120 minute game.
- Strategic Restrictiveness: Pacing elements have a unique role in game design but are commonly absent or play a reduced role in games with a short playing time. A quick game will lose the impact of a decision which weighs forgoing early gains against later benefits. Early risks don’t hold the same weight when you can try again in a few minutes. The excitement of a rush or speed strategy in a long game may be standard procedure in a shorter game.
- A grand scale: Games can use length as a method to immerse players into the gaming experience. Protracted playing times can allow a game to deliver a grandiose story and be more fulfilling to ambitious players. The purchase of a multi-hour epic can be more enticing to bring people together for a game night than a 30 minute filler.
- Storied experiences: Memorable experiences and outcomes are more likely to become stories in a longer game. Longer games are played less frequently by the average player and have more decisions and opportunities to overcome the odds. I remember the wild outcomes of particular games of Risk! from many years ago better than any of the hundreds of games I’ve played since. The distinctiveness of an experience will make it more memorable and an easier story to tell.
- Concentrated enthusiasm: Word of mouth is the most influential advertising that takes place in the gaming industry. A shorter game will be played by many but also evaluated by more players. Depending on how much you value ranking systems like Boardgamegeek, the top 200 is more favorable to longer and more complex games as they will most often be played and rated by their core audience. Well-designed games with a longer playing time don’t face as much standard criticism as players who prefer shorter games are able to avoid them.
- Captive Players: It can be an awful experience for players when they realize a mistake they made on turn two effectively removed them from contention for the next twenty turns. Additionally, a runaway leader problem can lead to a loss of player engagement as trailing players become trapped in a downward spiral for the duration of the game. The importance of positional balance increases as a game increases in length.
Games are measured in minutes or hours but game design is measured in the value of time. Game design can consider time value as the density of enjoyment, or how much player value can be placed into that playing time of a game. The application of this idea adheres well to games of any length. Time value aims for efficiency so let’s look at some ways we can improve the time value for players using game design:
Preparation for games is frequently an afterthought in game design, a last minute realization as the rulebook is being written. In all the time I’ve been gaming I’ve never heard anyone say “That was really great game but it was just too quick to set-up”. A short set-up time is always better. If a game takes too long to set-up, that thought will spring to mind every time that game is suggested. Budget the time of players so they spend time playing the game rather than setting up the game.
- A good rule of thumb for set-up time is to aim for less than 10% of the total playing time.
- What is necessary to set-up before the game begins? Can the set-up process be incorporated into gameplay as in Stratego?
- Can components be returned to the box once their purpose has been served to improve and speed the clean-up process at the end of the game?
- If a design uses an elaborate deck set-up or requires a large amount of card sorting, consider if it can be simplified. These procedures have become more common but don’t always add a great benefit.
- A well-organized box insert can aid in clean-up, and cut down on the set-up process of future games.
The longer a game takes to play the longer it takes to teach new players. Finding ways to ease players into the game and increase approachability should be a priority for games that are difficult to teach.
Space Alert uses an introductory scenario book in order to gradually teach some of the finer points of the game. Using this idea may benefit a group that can get together regularly so they can efficiently play each scenario rather than learn the entirety of the game before embarking on an intergalactic journey.
Considerations for instruction time:
- Games can feature too much innovation and each new idea will make it more difficult to learn. Consider whether additional gameplay complexity can be introduced in expansions to make the base game easier to learn.
The application of time value to standard gameplay primarily looks at how meaningful turns can be and how they can be performed more efficiently. If the first few turns play out in the same way, cut them out and start the game from that point. Give players more resources to begin. If a game requires you to get specific resources the first few turns, find a way to make the the start less predictable.
It is generally understood that the first play of a game takes longer to play but if the first game takes significantly longer than the second game that can be still be troublesome. Every game will be played once but not every game will be played twice. If players are guaranteed to struggle with the first play of a game, attempt to make it short enough so that they are willing to try it again.
Panic on Wallstreet uses timed rounds to heighten the tension and synchronize players on the same task. Usually deals and offers involve only two participants but in Panic on Wallstreet everyone is engaged in the same task.
- Mechanics like negotiation and trading can add wonderful player interaction but can stretch out the intended game length. Consider if a timing restraint or a limited number of offers for each player would be a useful benefit move the game toward a consistent playing time.
- Eliminate the desire for a player to perform bookkeeping during an active turn by establishing the structure of a turn. Have players end their turn by discarding down to a number of cards or updating their character attributes rather than perform these tasks as others are waiting.
- Consider if a game design would benefit from a tear-down phase when a region is scored or a conflict has been resolved. The phase could help with clean-up prior to the end of the game.
Downtime is a period of inactivity a player experiences when it isn’t their turn. While downtime is generally a pejorative term when used by players, it also has several benefits. Games should generally offer a comfortable amount of time between player turns so participants can evaluate their next move.
7 Wonders uses simultaneous gameplay in order to reduce downtime. Players begin each of three ages with a packet of cards from which they draft a single card and pass the remainder of the packet to their neighbor. Once everyone has selected, they all build their selected card, pick up the packet that was passed to them and repeat.
A problem called analysis paralysis can occur when a particularly analytical player may feel it necessary to thoroughly exhaust every potential option on their turn. There are methods to encourage players to take turns more quickly. If your game design has an issue with analysis paralysis, perhaps including a timer or introducing a hot potato mechanic may fit the style of the game and minimize downtime.
Designer Tom Jolly created an interesting solution with his “Lightning System” used in Camelot. In his system, two players take turns simultaneously as indicated by tokens. Once a player completes a turn, they pass the token to the next player around the table without a token. Players cannot take too long to make their decisions as the other token is rapidly advancing around the table to the active benefit of opponents.
Downtime is not always a flaw in game design if it can be used to benefit players. Yahtzee uses downtime to provide a social experience. Since there are no player obligations once you’ve passed the dice to the next player, players can socialize and enjoy the company of one another .
- Review gameplay features that relegate multiple players to being spectators. Avoid mechanics that create elongated dueling situations between two players while other players are forced to observe.
- The order of operations in a turn can create or reduce downtime. In Lost Cities. a turn consists of playing a card and then drawing a card. Alternatively if players draw a card at the beginning of a turn that is an added variable they need to consider before taking their turn.
- Avoid forcing players to make decisions that remove them from gameplay for extended periods of time. Folding is a great option in Poker but it doesn’t contribute to player enjoyment in most games if they have to sit out most of the time in order to succeed.
When considering game length, games will often function best when they have a built-in limit that triggers the end of the game. The simplest method can be seen in Small World, where a specific number of turns is known before the game begins. After each player performs the last turn, the final scores are tallied.
Static ending conditions can also come in the form of spatial arrangements. In Othello, a player piece is added to the board each turn. Once the board fills up the game is over. Games will usually finish in a consistent number of turns.
Static game endings can also come in the form of a threshold. Munchkin ends when one player reaches level 10, however opponents can cause setbacks and roll back the clock on the game. Similarly, Citadels ends when one player builds eight district cards. Players have the ability to destroy opponent district cards which can prolong the game.
Variable game endings take place when a game can conclude during a range of turns. It can provide tension and an opportunity to swing the power balance in an exciting battle but it comes at the cost of uncertainty and additional game length.
Late in a game of Combat Commander: Europe, players roll 2d6 and compare to a target number on the turn track to see if the game ends. If the sum of the dice do not meet or exceed the target number an additional turn is played, which will conclude in the same fashion with a target number that gives greater odds of ending the game. In Starcraft, the event deck includes three cards titled “The End Draws Near“. These three cards are shuffled into the bottom portion of the deck and once two of these have been drawn the game ends.
Considerations for ending conditions:
- Avoid including mechanics that encourage a cycle of exchanging control over a limited number of variables that trigger victory conditions. Games function best when they can demonstrate a sense of finality.
- Including multiple victory conditions is an excellent way to decrease game length as players will attempt to seize victory at the earliest opportunity, whether that is capturing a number of cities, exhausting the draw deck of an opponent or achieving a set number of victory points.
- Allowing players to track early scoring progress can prevent a lengthy score tallying procedure at the conclusion of the game. It also benefits players to be able to evaluate their in-game progress.
Player experience is the most important takeaway from this article and a game should only take the amount of time necessary to deliver an intended experience. If players are willing to take your journey, ensure it is a worthwhile one. I wouldn’t enjoy a game like Through the Ages if it took less than an hour and I wouldn’t enjoy Liar’s Dice if it took more than an hour.
Board games will always be defined not merely by innovation but by time value. Infact, it may not even be amount of time a game takes but simply the perception of time it takes. I’ve played two hour games that felt like they dragged on for much longer and I’ve played two hour games where the time flew by.
A suggestion for your next playtest: ask your volunteers to put away any watches and phones during the game. Immediately after the conclusion and final scoring, have each player write down how long they felt the game lasted and compare these numbers to the actual duration. It may tell you a lot more than you expect.
Thinking Like A Data Scientist Part III: The Role of Scores
In New Zealand, they are taking a “Moneyball” approach to optimizing social worker spending and focus attention can be most effective. A recent article in BusinessWeek “A Moneyball Approach To Helping Troubled Kids” (May 11, 2015) highlights the role that “scores” can play in identifying and prioritizing problem areas, and deciding what corrective actions to take.
Using data from welfare, education, employment, and the housing agencies and the courts, the government identified the most expensive welfare beneficiaries – kids who have at least one close adult relative who’s previously been reported to child safety authorities, been to prison, and spent substantial time on welfare. “There are million-dollar [cost] kids in those families,” Minister of Finance Bill English says. “By the time they are 10, their likelihood of incarceration is 70 percent. You’ve got to do something about that.”
…one idea is to rate families, giving them a number [score] that could be used to identify who’s most at risk in the same way that lenders rely on credit scores to determine creditworthiness. “The way we may use it, it’s going to be like it’s a FICO score,” says Jennie Feria, Head of Los Angeles’ Department of Children and Family Service. The information, she says, could be used both to prioritize cases and to figure out who needs extra services.
In continuing my “Thinking Like a Data Scientist” blog series, we’re going to focus on how “scores” can play a critical role in supporting an organization’s key business decisions. The power of a score is that it is relatively easy to understand from a business user perspective, and it focuses the data science efforts on identifying and exploring new variables, metrics and relationships that might be better predictors of performance.
Let’s start by understanding what a score is:
- A score is a dynamic rating or grade standardized to aid in comparisons, performance tracking and decision-making; scores can help to predict likelihood of certain actions or outcomes
- Scores are actionable, analytic-based measures that support the decisions your organization is trying to make, and guide the outcomes the organization is trying to predict
A common example of a score is the intelligence quotient or IQ score. An IQ score is derived from several standardized tests in order to create a single number that assesses an individual’s “intelligence.” The IQ score is standardized at 100 with a standard deviation of 15, which means that 68% of the population is within one standard deviation of the 100 standard (between 85 to 115). This standardization makes the IQ score easier to compare different candidates or applicants, and support key business decisions.
The true beauty of a “score” is its ability to convert a wide range of variables and metrics, all weighted, valued and correlated differently depending upon what’s being measured, into a single number that can be used to guide decision-making. And the true power of the “score” is the ability to start small with some simple analytics, and then constantly fine-tune and expand the score with new metrics, variables and the relationships that might yield better predictors of performance.
FICO may be the best example of a business score that is used to predict certain behaviors, in this case, the likelihood of a borrower to repay a loan. Fair, Isaac, and Company first introduced the FICO score in 1989. The FICO model uses a wide range of consumer data to create and update these scores.
A person’s FICO score can range between 300 and 850. A FICO score above 650 indicates that the individual has a very good credit history while people with scores below 620 will often find it substantially more difficult to obtain financing at a favorable rate (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: http://tightwadtravelers.com/check-fico-credit-score-free/
The FICO score considers a wide range of consumer data to generate the single score for every individual. The data elements that are used in the calculation of an individual’s FICO score include:
Payment History: 35 percent of the FICO credit score is based on a borrower’s payment history, making the repayment of past debt the most important factor in calculating credit scores. According to FICO, past long-term behavior is used to forecast future long-term behavior. This is a measure of how do you handle
- credit; think credit “behavioral analytics.” This particular category encompasses the following metrics and variables:
- Payment information on various types of accounts, including credit cards, retail accounts, installment loans and mortgages
- The appearance of any adverse public records, such as bankruptcies, judgments, suits and liens, as well as collection items and delinquencies
- Length of time for any delinquent payments
- Amount of money still owed on delinquent accounts or collection items
- Length of time since any delinquencies, adverse public records or collection items
- Number of past-due items listed on a credit report
- Number of accounts being paid as agreed
Credit Utilization: 30 percent of the FICO credit score is based on a borrower’s credit utilization; that is, the percentage of available credit that has been borrowed by that individual. The Credit Utilization calculation is comprised of six variables:
- The amount of debt still owed to lenders
- The number of accounts with debt outstanding
- The amount of debt owed on individual accounts
- The types of loan
- The percentage of credit lines in use on revolving accounts, like credit cards
- The percentage of debt still owed on installment loans, like mortgages
Length of credit history: 15 percent of the FICO credit score is based on the length of time each account has been open and the length of time since the account’s most recent activity. FICO breaks down “length of credit history” into three variables:
- Length of time the accounts have been open
- Length of time specific account types have been open
- Length of time since those accounts were used
New credit applications: 10 percent of the FICO credit score is based upon borrowers’ new credit applications. Within the new credit application category, FICO considers the following variables:
- Number of accounts have been opened in the past six to 12 months, as well as the proportion of accounts that are new, by account type
- Number of recent credit inquiries
- Length of time since the opening of any new accounts, by account type
- Length of time since any credit inquiries
- The re-appearance on a credit report of positive credit information for an account that had earlier payment problems
Credit Mix: 10 percent of the FICO credit score is based upon repaying the variety of debt, which is a measure of the borrower’s ability to handle a wide range of credit including:
- Installment loans, including auto loans, student loans and furniture purchases
- Mortgage loans
- Bank credit cards
- Retail credit cards
- Gas station credit cards
- Unpaid loans taken on by collection agencies or debt buyers
- Rental data
The point of showing all of this FICO calculation detail is to reinforce the basic concept (and power) of a score – that a score can take into consideration a wide range of variables, metrics and relationships to create a single, standardized number that be used to support an organization’s key decisions, or in the case of the FICO score, used by lenders to predict a particular loan applicant’s ability to repay a loan. That’s a very powerful concept. Scores are a critical concept in getting your business stakeholders to contemplate how they might want to integrate different variables and measures to create scores for the key business decisions that they need to make.
Scores can be created to support business stakeholder decision-making across a number of different industries. Let’s brainstorm just a few, and as my MBA students are going to find out this fall, there are many, many more waiting to be discovered!!
- Retirement Readiness Score. This would be a score that measures how ready each client or investor is for retirement. This score could include variables such as age, current annual income, current annual expenses, net worth, value of primary home, value of secondary homes, desired retirement age, desired retirement location (Iowa is a lot cheaper than Palo Alto!!), number of dependent children, number of dependent parents, desired retirement lifestyle, etc.
- Job Security Score. This score would measure the security of each individual’s job. This score could include variables such as industry, job type, employer(s), job level/title, job experience, age, education level, skill sets, industry publications and presentations, Klout scores, etc.
- Home Value Stability Score. This score would measure the stability of the value of a particular house. This score could consider variables such as current value, turnover and house sales history, value of house compared to comparable houses, whether it’s a primary residence or rental residence, local price-to-rent ratio, local housing trends (maybe pulled from Zillow), etc.
 FICO’s 5 factors: The components of a FICO credit score (http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/help/5-parts-components-fico-credit-score-6000.php)
Additional Scores for different industries can be seen in Table 3 below.
Table 3: Potential Scores by Industry
Scores are a very important and actionable concept for business stakeholders who are trying to envision where and how data science can improve their decision-making in support of their key business initiatives. As we saw from the FICO example, scores aid in performance tracking and decision-making by predicting likelihood of certain actions or outcomes (e.g., likelihood to repay a loan, in the case of the FICO score).
The beauty of a “score” is its ability to integrate a wide range of variables and metrics into a single number, and the power of the “score” is the ability to start small and then constantly looking for new metrics and variables that might yield better predictors of performance.
Simple but powerful, exactly what big data and data science should strive to be.
To learn more about EMC’s unique approach to leveraging Big Data to drive business value, please check out EMC’s Big Data Vision Workshop offering.
CTO, Dell EMC Services (aka “Dean of Big Data”)
Bill Schmarzo, author of “Big Data: Understanding How Data Powers Big Business” and “Big Data MBA: Driving Business Strategies with Data Science”, is responsible for setting strategy and defining the Big Data service offerings for Dell EMC’s Big Data Practice. As a CTO within Dell EMC’s 2,000+ person consulting organization, he works with organizations to identify where and how to start their big data journeys. He’s written white papers, is an avid blogger and is a frequent speaker on the use of Big Data and data science to power an organization’s key business initiatives. He is a University of San Francisco School of Management (SOM) Executive Fellow where he teaches the “Big Data MBA” course. Bill also just completed a research paper on “Determining The Economic Value of Data”. Onalytica recently ranked Bill as #4 Big Data Influencer worldwide.
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2 thoughts on “ Thinking Like A Data Scientist Part III: The Role of Scores ”
Bill – it’s only fair to also talk about the downside of scores. Namely, they compress, and thereby obfuscate, information. It is a double-edged sword, with a lot of gotchas.
Take Body-Mass-Index (BMI) as an example – it seems like a great idea, a single metric for wellness, right? And simple to compute – there are calculators all over the web to help (http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm). And all you need is to input your height and weight. Yet that’s part of the problem with BMI – it is a score based on *too simple* a calculation to capture the vision of the metric it aims for. A more legitimate “single metric for wellness” would need not just height and weight but age, sex, medications taken, diagnosis history, etc.
The other problem with scores is for those that use *too much* data to compute a single number. It is an axiom of Information Science that with compression, information is lost. For any data with a complex distribution, any attempt to compute a standardized score from it is going to obscure the variance. For instance, an IQ score close to the mean (say 90-110) is significantly more likely to be an accurate measure of the test-taker’s intelligence than a very high or very low score.
This also highlights a weakness of scores derived from single experiments (e.g. IQ test, SAT / ACT standardized tests, interviews to ‘tech’ a candidate, etc) – they perform, by which we mean “accurately measure the experiment” well near the mean; their performance several standard distributions away though is measurably worse. And since tests like this are typically used “in the wild” to identify edge cases – gifted children, exceptional employment candidates, hot startup investments, etc. – you have to expect false positives and negatives. The alternative approach – building up a broad profile of data based on many repeated and diverse observations (which is basically the opposite approach to scoring) – is much more robust for outliers, which often is where the assessment really matters.
Finally and maybe most importantly in this age of heightened brand awareness – scores are politically dicey things. No one likes to be reduced to a number. And however statistically useful the score, however powerful a predictor, the organization using that data must carefully weigh how (or whether) to inform the people it is measuring of its existence and usage.
Thanks Scott for your guidance. Good to hear from you again!
In order to address the urge to over-simplify by having just a single score, organizations need to think closely about the factors that influence a key business decision and decide what combinations of scores can be developed that address the Type I and Type II problems that you highlighted in your comments.
For example, FICO is a great score for measuring your likelihood to repay a loan, but we learned in the recent Financial Crisis that that score was insufficient to capture the multitude of factors and risks that lead to mortgage defaults. So I would have suggested that we needed additional scores that more holistically measure the mortgage default risks, such as:
– “Home Valuation” score that measured the likelihood that a particular house was overvalued and by how much
– “Employment Stability” score that measured the job security of the mortgage loan applicant
I think you can see where one can create a number of scores that provide a more holistic view of the decision that the business is trying to make (to approve a mortgage loan, in this example).
The other challenge is that a single score might be more accurate and actionable if it was broken into multiple scores. Again I go back to the business decision that we are trying to support and would have the Business User and the Data Scientist collaborate to determine what are the right scores that need to be created. This is a combination of art and science as the Business User and the Data Scientist explore the different data sources and analytics to find those variables, or scores, that are better predictors of performance.
India v Pakistan Live Score: Live Cricket Score of India v Pakistan, Match 4, Birmingham
So that's it from us from this game. We hope you enjoyed our coverage. India would be delighted with a complete performance. Pakistan have a lot of soul searching to do. The tournament goes on with Australia locking horns with Bangladesh tomorrow at The Oval. Action begins at 1330 local time (1230 GMT). Until then, it's goodbye and take care.
India skipper, Virat Kohli says that they were superb with the bat and the ball but poor in the field. Adds that they took the confidence from winning the warm-up games into the main tournament. Once again mentions that they were clinical with their skills but poor in the field. Informs that opening partnership was the key for them last time around in the Champions Trophy and Shikhar Dhawan continued his form while Rohit Sharma took his time out in the middle. He adds that Rohit needed those runs in his bag. Credits Yuvraj Singh for playing a sublime knock in the middle and taking the pressure off him and says that he's a game-changer. Also applauds Hardik Pandya's cameo in the end. Ends by stating that because they were playing Pakistan, they went in with an extra seamer and it will depend on the opposition going forward.
Pakistan skipper, Sarfraz Ahmed feels that they were not upto the mark in the field. Rues the fact that they lost the plot in the last eight overs with the ball. Credits India for playing well and taking the game away. Hopes that they get together and plan things better with both bat and ball.
Man of the Match, Yuvraj Singh calls it a good start to the tournament by getting some runs on the board. Adds that the openers gave them a good platform, Virat Kohli finished it well and he got the license to attack today. Informs that it's not easy to come back from an injury but one has to get out there and announce to the opposition that he is here to attack. Mentions that the bowlers bowled well today and they stuck to their plans. Ends by saying that they would like to carry this confidence into the Sri Lanka game.
Umesh Yadav was the best bowler for India, taking 3 for 30. Hardik Pandya and Ravindra Jadeja chipped in with a couple of wickets each. India didn't field that well and it will be something they would want to better going ahead. The rain did threaten to play spoilsport but in the end, we had enough time for a result. A lot was expected from this contest but as has been the case in the last few years, it was another one-sided game.
India pummel Pakistan by 124 runs (D/L)
India kicked off their defence of the ICC Champions trophy with a clinical performance beating Pakistan by 124 runs (D/L) in their opening match at Edgbaston, Birmingham on Sunday. India put on 319 for three despite two rain interruptions in 48 overs and managed to bundle out Pakistan for 164 in 33.4 overs. India’s top four registered fifties and the Man of the Match went to Yuvraj Singh for a blistering knock off 53 off just 32 deliveries. Rohit Sharma top-scored for India with 119-ball 91-run knock while skipper Virat Kohli remained unbeaten on 81 off 68 deliveries. With the ball, Umesh Yadav led from the front scalping three wickets while Hardik Pandya and Ravindra Jadeja took two apiece.
India have wrapped the game in fine fashion here. They had done most of the damage with the bat itself when they posted a par score on the board. It was thanks to the fifties from their top order batsmen that they got to that total despite the rain hampering their progress. The bowlers then backed up the good work. Azhar Ali was the lone man fighting for Pakistan in the chase with a fifty but he did not get any help from the rest as they kept losing wickets at intervals.
33.4: U Yadav to H Ali, OUT! 3-fer for Umesh Yadav! A touch behind length and angling in. It's too quick for the tailender Hasan Ali, who ends up checking his shot straight to Dhawan at mid-wicket. All the players are shaking hands as WAHAB RIAZ, who was injured in the first innings won't come out to bat. INDIA WIN BY 124 RUNS (DLS METHOD).
33.3: U Yadav to H Ali, Back of a length outside off, placed to point.